Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbf0…6f5b other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$13
politics 11% −$10
other 5% −$8
sports 1% −$29
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 44 -13.5% -21.7% 16% 7% -11.7%
all 56 -10.8% -19.3% 16% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 5% -9.8%
10% -27.0% 5% -18.5%
15% -34.0% 5% -26.3%
20% -40.5% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage602d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $9 +$6 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $14 +$11 +75%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +1%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $13,615 −$13 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $24 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $35 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 57m
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 23h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 27h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $6 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 29d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.10 · official $33.10 (match) · 248 history records