Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbee…1937 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
politics 33% $0
other 17% −$2
sports 3% $0
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 0% -9.1%
all 35 -11.1% -19.5% 20% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 9% -9.7%
10% -27.2% 9% -18.3%
15% -34.3% 9% -26.2%
20% -40.7% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage530d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 86¢ $45 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $88 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $144 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $207 +$9 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $23 −$1 -4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $11 $0 -4%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 10 $36 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $6 $0 -3%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $286 $0 +0%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 24 $4 $0 -11%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Feb 22 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 17? Feb 17 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17? Feb 16 $7 $0 -1%
Utah Tech vs. Southern Utah Feb 14 $4 +$3 +72%
UTSA vs. Wichita State Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the match between Maccabi TLV and FC Porto end in a draw? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sign between 1 and 3 executive orders on January 21? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1? Jan 21 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? Jan 06 $1 +$4 +354%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? Jan 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $45 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $44 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $12 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $48 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $47 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $43 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.31 · official $45.31 (match) · 111 history records