Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfbed…60b9 sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$365 (+9%) realized +$375 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%74W / 71L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$180
14 days+$571
30 days+$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$336
other 39% +$24
politics 3% +$6
world 3% −$11
tech 1% −$6
culture 1% −$11
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 42% +0.6%
≤30d 38 +21.7% +10.1% 50% 50% +13.9%
≤90d 38 +21.7% +10.1% 50% 50% +13.9%
all 145 -3.9% -13.0% 51% 48% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 48% -1.5%
10% -21.4% 41% -10.9%
15% -29.0% 30% -19.5%
20% -35.9% 26% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$375
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses74 / 71
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage265d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $178 $176 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $35 $26 −$9 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $236 +$104 +44%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $23 −$18 -77%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $281 +$69 +24%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $84 −$19 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $112 +$88 +79%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $80 +$20 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 +$82 +442%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $145 −$113 -78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 +$43 +75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$42 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $66 −$65 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $41 +$36 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $51 +$81 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $66 +$134 +203%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $60 +$40 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $32 +$68 +216%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $15 +$8 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $85 +$175 +206%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 04 $26 +$74 +285%
Eagles vs. Chargers Dec 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5 Dec 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Colts vs. Jaguars Dec 07 $15 +$19 +127%
Dolphins vs. Jets Dec 07 $25 +$19 +75%
Bears vs. Packers Dec 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Titans vs. Browns Dec 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bengals vs. Bills Dec 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Dec 07 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Dec 06 $7 $0 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 06 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2025 MLS Cup? Dec 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $179 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $51 3h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $118 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 26h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $65 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 40¢ $40 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $40 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $37 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $80 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $48 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $76 3d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 3d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 4d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 18¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.06 · official $202.06 (match) · 282 history records