Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbed…4ace other 141 markets active 10d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 111L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$14
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$26
politics 26% −$20
sports 21% −$19
crypto 7% −$2
economics 6% −$1
culture 6% −$4
world 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 52 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 95 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.9%
all 141 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage107d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $82 −$2 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $404 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $52 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $320 −$3 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $63 −$3 -4%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $99 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $47 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $403 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $57 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 11 $47 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $38 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $168 −$3 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 06 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $56 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $114 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $8 $0 -1%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $235 −$4 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $313 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $45 10d
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 10d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 10d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 10d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 10d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 11d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $52 11d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $52 11d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $50 11d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $52 11d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 11d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 11d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $47 11d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 11d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 11d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $63 12d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $55 12d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $56 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $56 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $56 12d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 12d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 13d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $47 13d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $47 13d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $51 13d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $52 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $55 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $56 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 561 history records