Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbec…fbbc other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$3
world 24% −$2
politics 17% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 8% −$1
finance 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -10.1%
all 41 -2.5% -11.8% 44% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage377d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $23 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $43 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $28 −$3 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $104 +$3 +3%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $22 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $21 $0 -1%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $28 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $24 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $23 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $24 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $4 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $21 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $25 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $25 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $18 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $18 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $16 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $28 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $28 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records