Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:33:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfbe8…838b sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-6%) realized −$111 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$112
politics 35% −$1
crypto 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 1 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤90d 5 -11.7% -20.1% 60% 20% -26.7%
all 7 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 14% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 14% -14.6%
10% -25.1% 14% -22.7%
15% -32.3% 14% -30.2%
20% -38.9% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$40 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage97d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Down 95¢ 90¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +3%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $154 −$152 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $162 −$8 -5%
76ers vs. Jazz Apr 09 $114 +$49 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? Mar 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $710 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $39 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 97¢ $38 41d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $154 60d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 92¢ $155 68d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 97¢ $162 68d
76ers vs. Jazz BUY 76ers 70¢ $114 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 97d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 97d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 97d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $709 97d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $710 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.99 · official $36.99 (match) · 14 history records