Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbe8…ae9a other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% $0
other 20% +$12
world 16% −$14
economics 12% −$1
sports 6% −$13
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.0% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 27 -4.6% -13.7% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 96 -1.9% -11.3% 41% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 57
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage465d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $148 $148 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $288 −$3 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $183 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $156 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $142 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $158 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $88 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $147 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $113 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $161 +$13 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $78 −$11 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,934 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $194 −$9 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $1,053 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,053 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $333 −$4 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $1,163 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 -12%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $1 $0 -5%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $185 in September? Sep 27 $10 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 22 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $148 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $147 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $147 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $138 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $132 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $12 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $102 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $124 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $142 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $142 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $142 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $144 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $158 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $158 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.43 · official $148.34 (match) · 320 history records