Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfbe6…ac08
weather · 169 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses79 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions38
Markets (closed)131 / 169
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 38 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 75¢ 65¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 71¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Yes 75¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 78¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Yes 78¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 69¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by August 31? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Landry Shamet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +32%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $1 $0 +30%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -7%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $6 $0 +5%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $4 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +10%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $1 $0 +26%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $1 $0 +43%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 5? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 $0 -38%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 35% +$15
crypto 22% −$13
other 17% −$2
sports 13% −$1
politics 7% +$3
world 6% −$3
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 23h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 34h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $0 34h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 9¢ $0 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -5.5% -14.5% 72% 23% -13.2%
≤30d 131 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 20% -9.7%
≤90d 131 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 20% -9.7%
all 131 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 20% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 20% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 15% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 8% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.97 · official $57.45 (match) · 842 history records