Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfbe4…f12f sports 1706 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$40 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%897W / 776L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$70
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 56% -5.7%
≤30d 676 -3.9% -13.0% 54% 53% -8.3%
≤90d 1673 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 53% -9.9%
all 1673 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 53% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 53% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 50% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 45% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 38% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses897 / 776
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1673 / 1706
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kovacevic vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 77¢ 84¢ $41 $45 +$3 (+8%)
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ 57¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Learner Tien 83¢ 84¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Fiona Ferro 65¢ 67¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Colton Smith 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Rafael Jodar 71¢ 70¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 71¢ 74¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Gibson 80¢ 84¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 50¢ 48¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Madison Keys 75¢ 72¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 62¢ 62¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Luca Nardi 64¢ 60¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 51¢ 55¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 54¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ 72¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 61¢ 62¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Aliona Falei 61¢ 60¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Kyrian Jacquet 51¢ 51¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 58¢ 59¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Magdalena Frech 57¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Las Vegas Aces 58¢ 58¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 60¢ 62¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Yaneva (-1.5) vs Pedone (+1.5) Pedone 55¢ 52¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-6%)
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Otto Virtanen 57¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Blockx vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Paul vs. Munar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $9 +$11 +123%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $17 +$6 +32%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $46 +$37 +79%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $44 +$40 +89%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$2 -3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $7 +$5 +79%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 13 $34 +$8 +24%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $7 +$6 +93%
Set Handicap: Cina (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) Jun 13 $13 +$7 +50%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $14 +$12 +82%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $31 +$9 +29%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $21 +$6 +26%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 +$6 +82%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $12 +$9 +76%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $6 +$5 +79%
Sun vs. Stoiana: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $45 +$7 +16%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $7 +$5 +70%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Romano (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$6 +82%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $24 +$7 +29%
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs. Johan Alexander Rodriguez: Total Sets Jun 12 $12 +$5 +43%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $11 +$13 +118%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $7 +$3 +43%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $9 +$6 +67%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $7 +$7 +96%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$8 +70%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Tjen (+1.5) BUY Tjen 55¢ $7 1m
Izquierdo vs. Assche: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 28m
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Svajda 50¢ $5 53m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ $6 2h
Kovacevic vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 77¢ $41 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 61¢ $12 3h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 65¢ $27 5h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 51¢ $11 6h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 64¢ $25 6h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ $36 6h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 64¢ $16 6h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 60¢ $8 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 58¢ $8 8h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 65¢ $3 12h
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 58¢ $10 13h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 50¢ $17 13h
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) BUY Olivieri 51¢ $6 13h
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 57¢ $7 13h
Set Handicap: Yaneva (-1.5) vs Pedone (+1.5) BUY Pedone 55¢ $8 13h
Set Handicap: Bonzi (-1.5) vs Barrios (+1.5) BUY Barrios 51¢ $7 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 71¢ $19 16h
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu SELL Yunchaokete Bu 100¢ $17 17h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney SELL Himeno Sakatsume 100¢ $19 17h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 59¢ $8 18h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Martin Landaluce 100¢ $23 18h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $83 19h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $84 20h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $13 21h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 83¢ $31 21h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $22 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.01 · official $468.02 (match) · 3500 history records