Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbe3…81f2 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$220 (+0%) realized +$220 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%77W / 9L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$819per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$236
14 days+$421
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$348
other 29% −$663
sports 9% +$542
world 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 52 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 55 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.9%
all 86 +1.9% -7.8% 90% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -9.2%
10% -16.6% 3% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$2,016) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$83 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses77 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage165d
Avg bet$819
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $483 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2,434 +$23 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2,421 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $2,395 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $419 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,391 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2,365 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2,341 +$24 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,331 +$10 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1,176 +$12 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,313 +$8 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2,290 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,271 +$20 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $108 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $276 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $1,305 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $542 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $505 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $2,231 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $647 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2,216 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,489 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $2,186 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $2,164 +$22 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,161 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,155 +$6 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $1,990 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $152 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,134 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2,114 +$20 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $688 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $440 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $971 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,091 +$8 +0%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $196 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,059 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $996 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $285 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,775 +$20 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $280 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2,042 +$12 +1%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 2? Jun 03 $459 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1,568 +$15 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,016 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,756 −$740 -27%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $986 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $229 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,002 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,421 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $446 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $559 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $593 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $250 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $98 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $93 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.06 · official $3.06 (match) · 676 history records