Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfbe2…490a sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$350 (-3%) realized −$577 · open +$227
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$216
14 days−$327
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$107
other 21% +$8
tech 16% +$6
world 5% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 50% +6.3%
≤30d 7 -9.4% -18.0% 86% 14% -18.2%
≤90d 15 -4.3% -13.4% 93% 7% -13.6%
all 18 -3.6% -12.7% 94% 6% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 6% -12.8%
10% -21.1% 6% -21.2%
15% -28.7% 0% -28.8%
20% -35.7% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$546) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$548 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$812
Realized−$577
Unrealized+$227
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage106d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 72¢ 100¢ $585 $812 +$227 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $583 +$6 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $649 +$210 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $551 −$548 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $550 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 14 $546 +$4 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $270 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O Jun 01 $274 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8? May 09 $540 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $250 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April May 01 $295 +$1 +0%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 27 $500 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Pacers Apr 13 $543 +$1 +0%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 10 $542 +$1 +0%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Apr 09 $542 +$1 +0%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Apr 01 $541 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Clippers Mar 24 $541 +$1 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $540 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $539 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.45 · official $812.45 (match) · 37 history records