Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbde…6ce0 politics 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 68L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$20
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 70 -3.3% -12.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage635d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of January? Feb 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will Zdeněk Hřib be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte Nov 24 $52 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Isiah Pacheco be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'A Real Pain' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 13-20? Dec 19 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? Dec 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will USC win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nebraska win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Sounders win the MLS Cup? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nana Kwame Bediako be the next President of Ghana? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $0 $0 -3%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 18 $0 $0 -4%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Nov 18 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 11h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 6d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 34d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 35d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 43d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 43d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 45d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 46d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 51d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 51d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 68d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 69d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 71d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 72d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 99d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 99d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 101d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 102d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 106d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 106d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $53 109d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $53 110d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 114d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 118d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 118d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 118d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 118d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $52 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records