Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:12:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbde…5993 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$303 (-10%) realized −$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%51W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$34
other 11% −$337
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 39 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 3% -6.0%
≤90d 50 +0.4% -9.1% 98% 2% -6.9%
all 53 -1.5% -10.9% 96% 2% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -19.0%
10% -19.4% 2% -26.7%
15% -27.2% 2% -33.8%
20% -34.3% 2% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$168 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses51 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage145d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 29? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 28? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 27? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 26? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25? May 26 $13 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $30 +$30 +100%
Will Solana dip to $70 May 18-24? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 23? May 25 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 21? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 19? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 18? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 25h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 22d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $32 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.93 · official $40.93 (match) · 108 history records