Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbd8…f564 crypto 1538 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$269 (-4%) realized −$289 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate66%1014W / 523L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day65.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$39
14 days−$70
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 443 -18.4% -26.2% 55% 34% -12.2%
≤30d 845 -14.3% -22.5% 51% 40% -14.7%
≤90d 1537 -9.4% -18.0% 66% 27% -13.5%
all 1537 -9.4% -18.0% 66% 27% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 27% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 19% -21.8%
15% -33.0% 17% -29.4%
20% -39.6% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1014 / 523
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1537 / 1538
History coverage36d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day65.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 48¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.65 · official $2.65 (match) · 3500 history records