Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbd6…6c38 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$199 (+16%) realized +$384 · open −$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$190
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$110
crypto 22% −$114
sports 8% +$223
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +76.0% +59.2% 67% 67% +41.6%
≤30d 28 -30.0% -36.7% 25% 25% +12.5%
≤90d 28 -30.0% -36.7% 25% 25% +12.5%
all 28 -30.0% -36.7% 25% 25% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 25% +12.5%
10% -42.7% 25% +1.8%
15% -48.3% 21% -8.1%
20% -53.4% 14% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$14 · ×4.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$384
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage14d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $195 $192 −$4 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $182 $1 −$181 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $204 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$14 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $99 +$195 +197%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $57 +$184 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$27 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$35 -76%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$13 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$9 +128%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$67 +328%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 31m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $186 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $204 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $17 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $294 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $99 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $98 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $13 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $36 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $40 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $241 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 23¢ $57 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.69 · official $192.69 (match) · 79 history records