Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbd5…129d crypto 58 markets active 1d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% $0
weather 22% −$5
world 9% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -39.5% -45.3% 50% 50% -44.5%
≤30d 58 -4.8% -13.8% 45% 29% -17.1%
≤90d 58 -4.8% -13.8% 45% 29% -17.1%
all 58 -4.8% -13.8% 45% 29% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 29% -17.1%
10% -22.1% 26% -25.0%
15% -29.6% 19% -32.3%
20% -36.5% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31? May 31 $5 +$6 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31? May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 31? May 31 $12 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 3 May 31 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 31 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 31 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 31 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 30 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$7 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 29? May 29 $4 +$5 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 29 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 28 $2 +$6 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 59¢ $7 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 67¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 42¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 60¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records