Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbd5…e689 other 25 markets active 3d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$45 (-7%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$132
14 days−$132
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$223
politics 36% +$98
sports 10% +$88
crypto 5% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +6.7% -3.5% 22% 17% -43.2%
≤30d 23 +2.3% -7.4% 22% 17% -18.6%
≤90d 23 +2.3% -7.4% 22% 17% -18.6%
all 23 +2.3% -7.4% 22% 17% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 17% -18.6%
10% -16.3% 17% -26.4%
15% -24.4% 17% -33.5%
20% -31.8% 13% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$18 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage14d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $119 −$107 -90%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$6 -22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$9 -40%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$86 +759%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $25 −$2 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 01 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $83 −$48 -57%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $44 −$5 -12%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 01 $82 +$163 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands win BUY $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $92 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL No 74¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records