Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbd2…61f1 sports 316 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$387 (+10%) realized −$168 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%144W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$66
14 days−$178
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$8
other 36% −$120
world 10% +$1
finance 3% −$2
crypto 2% −$6
tech 1% +$8
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 46% -22.2%
≤30d 259 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 46% -15.5%
≤90d 260 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 45% -15.5%
all 260 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 45% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 45% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 37% -23.6%
15% -32.4% 31% -31.0%
20% -39.0% 25% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses144 / 116
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions56
Markets (closed)260 / 316
History coverage30d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 48¢ 81¢ $62 $107 +$44 (+71%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 90¢ 86¢ $44 $41 −$2 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 90¢ 98¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 87¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+35%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 79¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 72¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+17%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 78¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+118%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 54¢ 32¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-41%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Birmingham: James Duckworth vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 37¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 48¢ 70¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 86¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$5 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +148%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $27 −$11 -41%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $1 +$3 +188%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $86 −$29 -34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 +$31 +64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $63 −$44 -70%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $27 −$4 -14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $9 +$13 +143%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $83 −$4 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $70 −$25 -36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$3 -15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $14 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $81 −$17 -21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +84%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 −$3 -4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $26 +$23 +91%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $37 −$15 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$17 +210%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +30%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $4 +$4 +90%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $11 $0 -3%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 28m
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 31m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 40m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $23 43m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $5 43m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $1 43m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $1 45m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 93¢ $5 45m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 89¢ $3 45m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 89¢ $3 46m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 77¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 78¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 78¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.22 · official $363.71 (match) · 1449 history records