Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbd1…d403 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1
other 22% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 4% −$8
tech 3% $0
sports 3% +$6
economics 1% $0
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 46 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 9% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage484d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $1 $0 -24%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 22 $11 $0 -4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
North Korea missile test by June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$5 -37%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 6? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $14 +$1 +4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 31 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Apr 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20? Mar 04 $9 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $3 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $27 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $37 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $33 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records