Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbcc…96c4 crypto 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$66 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate74%96W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$51
other 21% −$23
finance 5% +$11
politics 4% +$16
culture 3% $0
economics 2% −$3
tech 1% +$2
world 1% $0
sports 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -6.0% -15.0% 80% 60% -16.8%
≤90d 29 +0.7% -8.9% 79% 38% -6.8%
all 130 -10.0% -18.5% 74% 21% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 21% -11.8%
10% -26.3% 10% -20.2%
15% -33.4% 5% -27.9%
20% -40.0% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses96 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)130 / 146
History coverage264d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 45¢ 20¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 87¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 46¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 61¢ 63¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $17 +$4 +23%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 02 $6 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $7 +$2 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 12 $18 +$7 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $10 +$1 +7%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $14 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 05 $17 +$1 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $16 +$1 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 05 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $18 +$2 +13%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $7 $0 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 02 $41 +$1 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $18 +$1 +8%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $29 +$12 +41%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $12 $0 -1%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 22 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $39 $0 -0%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 09 $9 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 02 $6 $0 +9%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 27 $10 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Feb 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 27 $30 $0 -0%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 22 $14 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Feb 19 $1 $0 +9%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Feb 19 $2 $0 +1%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Feb 15 $3 $0 +9%
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? Feb 13 $24 $0 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $10 $0 -4%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 04 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $27 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $28 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 2h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $15 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $17 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $17 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $18 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 8d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 8d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $6 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $13 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 84¢ $7 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $17 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $18 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.60 · official $50.23 · 409 history records