Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfbcc…f806 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,105 (-13%) realized −$1,101 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%39W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$1,106
crypto 42% −$4
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 41 -2.6% -11.9% 95% 0% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -25.3%
10% -20.3% 0% -32.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -39.0%
20% -35.1% 0% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$555 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$2,500
Realized−$1,101
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses39 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage614d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,500 $1,498 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,004 $1,002 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Feb 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Feb 18 $8 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Feb 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Feb 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Feb 18 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Feb 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October? Oct 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $551 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5,031 −$1,106 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,005 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,500 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 105d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $49 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $102 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $60 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $48 120d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $61 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $10 120d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 120d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 120d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 252d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 99¢ $45 252d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $44 252d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 98¢ $8 252d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 252d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $21 252d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 252d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 252d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 252d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 99¢ $2 252d
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 252d
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 252d
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 252d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 252d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,499.76 · official $2,499.76 (match) · 94 history records