Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbcb…bb5d other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (695 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,780 (+8%) realized +$1,861 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%14W / 193L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,141per market
Trades / day695.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$669
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (695 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -44.2% -49.5% 7% 6% -16.5%
≤30d 207 -44.2% -49.5% 7% 6% -16.5%
≤90d 207 -44.2% -49.5% 7% 6% -16.5%
all 207 -44.2% -49.5% 7% 6% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover695.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.5% 6% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -54.3% 5% -24.5%
15% -58.8% 5% -31.8%
20% -62.8% 5% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -90% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
87.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$25 · ×6.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$638
Realized+$1,861
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses14 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)207 / 20
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$1,141
Trades / day695.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $423 $373 −$50 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $154 $256 +$102 (+66%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $35 $6 −$29 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$78 +3132%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$24 -212%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$21 +2650%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$24 -157%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$27 +1040%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $29 +$24 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$112 -318%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 0m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 10m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 11m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 13m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 14m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 15m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 17m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 19m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 20m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 22m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 24m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 25m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 26m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 28m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 43m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 45m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 47m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 49m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 51m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 53m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 54m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 56m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 58m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.26 · official $635.46 (match) · 3500 history records