Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbcb…e319 politics 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-15%) realized −$59 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$26
world 25% −$75
other 7% −$9
economics 2% +$4
sports 1% −$3
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.0% +31.2% 50% 25% +15.2%
≤30d 5 +16.0% +5.0% 40% 20% +10.9%
≤90d 7 -13.4% -21.6% 29% 14% -2.4%
all 24 -30.7% -37.3% 29% 25% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 25% -29.0%
10% -43.3% 21% -35.8%
15% -48.8% 21% -42.0%
20% -53.8% 21% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage202d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$18 +198%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $46 +$5 +10%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -7%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? May 15 $4 −$4 -88%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $8 −$7 -86%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $5 $0 -10%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 08 $3 $0 +14%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jan 07 $7 +$7 +97%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 19 $41 −$23 -56%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $9 +$5 +58%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Dec 10 $9 −$9 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 10? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference? Dec 10 $5 +$3 +74%
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference? Dec 10 $4 +$4 +78%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 10 $179 −$6 -3%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 7m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 13m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 59m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $27 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 10¢ $47 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $25 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $11 5d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $37 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 24d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere $3 25d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $19 30d
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? SELL Yes $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.07 · official $14.07 (match) · 89 history records