Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbc6…9092 sports 342 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,100 (-17%) realized −$3,118 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%73W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$331est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$230
14 days+$230
30 days−$872
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$2,628
crypto 14% −$475
other 2% −$238
world 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -8.5% -17.2% 21% 19% +1.4%
≤30d 199 -18.4% -26.2% 23% 21% -17.9%
≤90d 330 -23.4% -30.7% 22% 21% -26.7%
all 330 -23.4% -30.7% 22% 21% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 21% -26.7%
10% -37.3% 21% -33.7%
15% -43.4% 20% -40.1%
20% -48.9% 19% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$49 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$487
Realized−$3,118
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses73 / 257
Est. fees paid−$331
Open positions12
Markets (closed)330 / 342
History coverage73d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Sumit Nagal 30¢ 72¢ $50 $120 +$70 (+140%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $66 $79 +$13 (+20%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 90¢ 91¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+2%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $28 $53 +$25 (+89%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Gabriela Ruse 43¢ 18¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-59%)
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $51 +$119 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$24 -94%
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -94%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -94%
ITF Alkmaar: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs Julien Penzlin Jun 26 $20 +$69 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Giannicola Misasi vs George Lazarov Jun 26 $31 +$85 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Karla Bartel Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $51 +$243 +473%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$67 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $59 −$58 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $50 −$46 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$197 +740%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$38 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $53 +$299 +564%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $51 +$230 +448%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $51 +$233 +454%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Gabriela Ruse 43¢ $51 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 47m
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Sumit Nagal 30¢ $51 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 52m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $170 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $26 1h
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Petra Marcinko 4¢ $21 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 29¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
ITF Alkmaar: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs Julien Penzlin BUY Manel Lazaro Juncadella 22¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 4h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Giannicola Misasi vs George Lazarov SELL Giannicola Misasi 100¢ $115 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.10 · official $497.08 · 589 history records