Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfbbb…3a43 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$113 (-2%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$3
economics 13% +$1
politics 12% −$1
world 11% +$2
sports 2% −$98
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 19% -10.8%
all 23 -13.5% -21.7% 35% 17% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 17% -11.0%
10% -29.2% 17% -19.6%
15% -36.1% 17% -27.3%
20% -42.3% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$761) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage105d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $4 $0 -0%
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres Apr 11 $4 +$4 +85%
Watford FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $7 +$7 +100%
Incheon United FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Predators vs. Sharks Apr 05 $9 −$9 -100%
NEOM SC vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $10 +$10 +100%
West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Andorra vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $9 +$9 +104%
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 244.5 Mar 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski confirm relationship by March 31? Mar 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Norway join the Board of Peace? Mar 28 $1,717 $0 -0%
Will Trump sue Powell by March 31? Mar 28 $873 +$1 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 28 $761 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on March 31? Mar 28 $818 +$4 +0%
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March? Mar 28 $758 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Mar 28 $811 −$1 -0%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31? Mar 28 $809 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 1PM ET Mar 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 9AM ET Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 30m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $2 15d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $2 15d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 31d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 55d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 55d
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 54¢ $4 70d
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 54¢ $0 70d
Watford FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7 71d
Incheon United FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $11 72d
Incheon United FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $0 72d
NEOM SC vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $10 74d
Predators vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 51¢ $3 74d
Predators vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 51¢ $5 74d
Predators vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 51¢ $2 74d
West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $5 75d
FC Andorra vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 76d
Canada vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $4 77d
Canada vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $5 77d
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 244.5 BUY Under 48¢ $94 79d
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 244.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 79d
Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski confirm relationship by March 31? SELL Yes $0 79d
Will Norway join the Board of Peace? SELL No 100¢ $886 80d
Will Norway join the Board of Peace? BUY No 100¢ $887 80d
Will Trump sue Powell by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $10 80d
Will Trump sue Powell by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $864 80d
Will Trump sue Powell by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $873 80d
Will Norway join the Board of Peace? SELL No 100¢ $831 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records