Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfbbb…cff7 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% $0
politics 25% $0
sports 17% $0
economics 17% $0
world 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage85d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $114 −$1 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $229 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $116 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $113 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $114 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $114 16d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $114 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $114 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $114 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 31d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 36d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $115 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $115 38d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 43d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 44d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $116 61d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $116 62d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $116 64d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $83 65d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $33 65d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $116 72d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $116 72d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 78d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 79d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 79d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 84d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records