Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbba…408d other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$20
politics 30% −$15
sports 9% −$29
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 115 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 147 -3.0% -12.2% 5% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 1% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 1% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage136d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $174 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $442 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $395 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $347 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $377 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $173 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $192 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $176 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $382 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $215 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $215 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $322 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $390 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $183 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $212 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $430 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $153 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $20 13h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 18d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 24d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 31d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 31d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 31d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 31d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 32d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $219 32d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $219 32d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 33d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 33d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 492 history records