Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbb6…112c crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$25
other 7% +$4
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +11.9% +1.3% 57% 57% -2.4%
≤30d 30 +11.9% +1.3% 57% 57% -2.4%
≤90d 30 +11.9% +1.3% 57% 57% -2.4%
all 30 +11.9% +1.3% 57% 57% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 57% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 53% -11.7%
15% -17.3% 50% -20.3%
20% -25.4% 47% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$29 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$89 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$75 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$49 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$78 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$65 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 55 history records