Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbad…d3fc other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$13
politics 17% −$1
sports 7% −$64
culture 6% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.9% -0.6% 20% 20% -4.2%
≤30d 18 +2.7% -7.1% 17% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 99 -12.5% -20.8% 8% 3% -11.7%
all 99 -12.5% -20.8% 8% 3% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 3% -11.7%
10% -28.4% 3% -20.2%
15% -35.3% 3% -27.9%
20% -41.7% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage85d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $13 +$6 +50%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 12h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 15h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 31h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 34h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $13 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $11 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.50 · official $30.50 (match) · 245 history records