Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfba9…cb2c crypto 502 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized +$81 · open −$120
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%251W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$60
14 days−$62
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$964
crypto 35% −$569
other 8% −$126
finance 7% −$159
politics 4% −$235
sports 1% −$94
culture 0% +$21
weather 0% −$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -37.1% -43.1% 30% 20% -13.1%
≤30d 17 -24.4% -31.6% 35% 29% -17.3%
≤90d 447 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 46% -11.8%
all 499 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 46% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 46% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 35% -18.4%
15% -34.0% 26% -26.3%
20% -40.5% 18% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses251 / 248
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)499 / 502
History coverage114d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 12¢ $49 $5 −$44 (-89%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes $82 $4 −$77 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $105 −$35 -33%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $90 −$55 -61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 −$108 -100%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $897 +$66 +7%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $190 +$25 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$121 +203%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 +$6 +30%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$22 +107%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $134 −$112 -84%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 22 $84 −$73 -86%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $215 +$101 +47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $268 +$32 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? May 16 $58 +$22 +37%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 14 $76 −$12 -16%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 12 $20 −$13 -67%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 11 $174 +$32 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 03 $281 +$51 +18%
James Comey arrested by May 15? May 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Apr 29 $138 +$20 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 27 $68 −$8 -12%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 26 $40 −$3 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 26 $167 +$18 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 25 $27 +$7 +27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 25 $96 +$8 +8%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $54 −$22 -41%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $67 +$23 +35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 21 $69 +$8 +11%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $21 +$2 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $139 +$21 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 21 $90 +$2 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 19 $269 −$89 -33%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 19 $30 −$3 -9%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 18 $36 +$6 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $8 −$5 -62%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 13 $54 −$33 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 13 $73 +$10 +14%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $80 +$2 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 12 $37 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 26m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 1h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $35 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $70 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $90 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 5h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 8h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $185 9h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $99 10h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $72 10h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $30 13h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $19 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $47 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.41 · official $36.41 (match) · 3258 history records