Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FB 0xfba8…0f27 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 443d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,356 (+30%) realized +$1,359 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip

Net edge+38%after slip

Net WR83%break-even

Win rate83%10W / 2L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$269per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$218

7 days+$257

14 days+$257

30 days+$257

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +83%

net ROI/market (all)+38.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+49.3%	+35.1%	75%	75%	+22.5%
≤30d	8	+49.3%	+35.1%	75%	75%	+22.5%
≤90d	8	+49.3%	+35.1%	75%	75%	+22.5%
all	12	+53.0%	+38.4%	83%	83%	+22.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+38.4%	83%	+22.2%
10%	+25.2%	67%	+10.5%
15%	+13.1%	58%	-0.2%
20%	+2.0%	33%	-10.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +53% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +46% → late +60% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$144 vs −$23 · ×6.18 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×30.92 per $1 lost it wins $30.92

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage

Net worth$439

Realized+$1,359

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses10 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)12 / 17

History coverage443d

Avg bet$269

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$242	$240	−$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$44	+44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$100	−$36	-36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$21	+$44	+206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$106	+$13	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$81	+$62	+76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$152	+$92	+60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$103	+$50	+48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$63	−$11	-17%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08?	May 08	$100	+$149	+150%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio	Apr 29	$1,763	+$363	+21%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-27?	Apr 27	$109	+$27	+25%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?	Apr 04	$1,279	+$596	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$143	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	43¢	$31	6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	57¢	$65	7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$100	27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN	BUY	41¢	$102	27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	32¢	$21	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$30	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$51	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	73¢	$153	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$106	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on	BUY	22¢	$26	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$52	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	60¢	$52	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$63	4d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08?	SELL Yes	100¢	$249	408d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08?	BUY Yes	40¢	$100	408d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio	SELL Yes	99¢	$2,126	418d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio	BUY Yes	82¢	$1,763	418d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$136	419d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-27?	BUY Yes	80¢	$109	419d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,876	443d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,279	443d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.08 · official $469.08 · 34 history records