Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfba8…38e9 crypto 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%142W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$211
14 days+$234
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +31.2% +18.7% 70% 70% +16.9%
≤30d 101 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 52% -12.3%
≤90d 272 -2.0% -11.4% 52% 52% -10.1%
all 272 -2.0% -11.4% 52% 52% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 52% -10.1%
10% -19.8% 52% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 52% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 52% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses142 / 130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)272 / 272
History coverage53d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 272 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $79 +$70 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$66 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $68 +$59 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$55 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$62 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $67 +$56 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $72 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $70 +$56 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $62 +$55 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 05 $57 +$51 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $29 +$26 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $33 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $27 +$25 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $29 +$29 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 05 $39 +$32 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 05 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $55 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $58 +$69 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $22 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 04 $48 +$43 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $53 +$45 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $115 −$112 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $86 −$83 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 03 $24 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 02 $51 +$61 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $43 +$49 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 01 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 31 $25 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 31 $44 +$39 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 31 $69 +$62 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 30 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 30 $53 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 30 $110 −$108 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $71 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $68 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $80 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $67 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $72 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $70 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $57 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $27 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $29 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $39 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $34 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 538 history records