Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfba6…3dc3 world 56 markets active 15h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$55,889 (+30%) realized +$20,363 · open +$35,526
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$3,382per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$47,984now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9,360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$49,653
other 0% −$162
finance 0% −$100
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+80.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 24 -79.3% -81.3% 8% 8% -14.5%
≤90d 34 +99.7% +80.7% 29% 29% -10.3%
all 34 +99.7% +80.7% 29% 29% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +80.7% 29% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here +63.4% 29% -18.8%
15% +47.6% 29% -26.7%
20% +33.1% 26% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +288% → late -88% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,737 vs −$2,230 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$47,984
Realized+$20,363
Unrealized+$35,526
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions22
Markets (closed)34 / 56
History coverage70d
Avg bet$3,382
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 85¢ $7,500 $38,092 +$30,593 (+408%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 94¢ $4,000 $9,350 +$5,350 (+134%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $300 $191 −$109 (-36%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 43¢ 68¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+59%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+52%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 41¢ 19¢ $57 $26 −$31 (-54%)
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $37 $17 −$19 (-53%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 23¢ 9¢ $40 $16 −$24 (-60%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-77%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $35 $11 −$24 (-70%)
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $40 $9 −$31 (-76%)
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $60 $8 −$52 (-86%)
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-80%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $50 $5 −$45 (-89%)
Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30? May 30 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 30 $89 −$89 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 30 $340 −$340 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 30 $310 −$310 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 30 $18,252 −$14,967 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 30 $54,004 −$36,200 -67%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $94,757 +$43,053 +45%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $686 +$978 +143%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $474 −$74 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $1,090 −$454 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $300 +$638 +212%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $75 −$30 -40%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $100 +$533 +533%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 +$7 +138%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $100 +$126 +126%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $198 +$19,246 +9720%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $100 +$1,880 +1880%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $200 +$901 +451%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $250 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $203 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $47 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $119 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,000 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $690 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,984.43 · official $47,984.77 (match) · 738 history records