Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfba6…1fca world 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$41,401 (-8%) realized −$40,897 · open −$504
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate63%76W / 45L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,936per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$291est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$6,546
sports 5% −$4,234
other 4% −$81
crypto 4% −$9,503
politics 3% +$148
economics 2% +$388
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 43% -25.4%
≤30d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 61% 39% -12.7%
≤90d 121 +12.8% +2.0% 63% 29% -10.7%
all 121 +12.8% +2.0% 63% 29% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 29% -10.7%
10% -7.7% 17% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -16.7% 12% -27.0%
20% -24.8% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$4,323) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,058 vs −$1,968 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,828
Realized−$40,897
Unrealized−$504
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses76 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$291
Open positions8
Markets (closed)121 / 127
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$3,936
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? No 83¢ 94¢ $583 $660 +$77 (+13%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $715 $434 −$281 (-39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $330 $321 −$9 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 87¢ 88¢ $208 $209 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 53¢ 30¢ $181 $104 −$77 (-42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+2%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 67¢ 70¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 22¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4,200 +$1,455 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $16,672 +$7,491 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $15,458 +$4,101 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2,465 −$1,108 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $9,634 −$3,361 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $42,799 −$24,647 -58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $262 +$8 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $343 +$56 +16%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $340 +$30 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 02 $108 −$108 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $23,114 +$7,490 +32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $211 +$49 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $7,575 +$1,408 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,170 −$66 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $5,857 +$926 +16%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 23 $616 +$37 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $13,842 +$1,287 +9%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 20 $286 +$54 +19%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? May 20 $531 +$18 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $24,259 +$9,813 +40%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 12 $5,872 +$95 +2%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 12 $780 −$780 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 12 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $1,260 +$740 +59%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 10 $1,245 +$255 +20%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $1,220 +$780 +64%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27 May 09 $5,233 −$186 -4%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 09 $1,984 +$8 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $6,030 −$4,030 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $4,588 −$3,388 -74%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $147 −$147 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $2,759 −$2,188 -79%
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 May 05 $1,373 +$410 +30%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? May 05 $96 +$2 +2%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? May 05 $1 $0 +8%
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? May 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 05 $1,862 +$11 +1%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 05 $6,675 −$241 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 05 $2,654 +$530 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 04 $8,478 +$108 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $2,500 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $10,790 −$2,699 -25%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $25,268 +$2,900 +12%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, May 04 $3,514 +$96 +3%
Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026? May 04 $30 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,604 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 94¢ $564 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $1,032 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $727 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $58 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $300 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $29 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $1,282 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $1,921 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $185 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $136 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $38 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $118 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $95 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $255 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $304 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $172 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,827.95 · official $1,828.95 (match) · 3500 history records