Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfba5…15e7 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-9%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 38% +8.8%
≤30d 16 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 38% +8.8%
≤90d 38 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 37% -16.4%
all 38 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 37% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 37% -16.4%
10% -23.5% 37% -24.4%
15% -30.9% 32% -31.7%
20% -37.7% 21% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage71d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$16 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$15 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 06 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 06 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 06 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 06 $57 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 06 $77 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 06 $40 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 06 $30 −$28 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 06 $74 +$36 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 06 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 06 $79 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 06 $50 −$42 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 06 $104 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 06 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 06 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 06 $49 +$48 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 06 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 06 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$14 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 06 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records