Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FB 0xfba4…6b6f crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$345 (-13%) realized −$341 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$417
sports 5% +$57
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.8% +2.9% 40% 40% +39.4%
≤30d 10 +13.8% +2.9% 40% 40% +39.4%
≤90d 10 +13.8% +2.9% 40% 40% +39.4%
all 91 +15.1% +4.1% 41% 38% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 38% -19.3%
10% -5.9% 34% -27.1%
15% -15.0% 29% -34.1%
20% -23.3% 24% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$341
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)91 / 95
History coverage109d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +235%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$17 +234%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $3 +$4 +133%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $1 +$3 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 02 $318 −$174 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 02 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 02 $32 −$23 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 02 $20 +$2 +9%
ODi Series South Africa vs Pakistan, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Mar 01 $1 +$4 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 28 $147 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 28 $14 +$54 +380%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 28 $134 +$39 +29%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 28 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 28 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$86 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 28 $50 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 28 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 28 $30 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 28 $37 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 28 $32 +$54 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 28 $134 +$35 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$89 -89%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $17 +$13 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 28 $188 −$171 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 28 $240 −$19 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 28 $171 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 28 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 28 $40 +$72 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 28 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 28 $142 −$137 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 28 $60 −$46 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 28 $25 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 28 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 28 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$34 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 28 $13 −$4 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 35m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 35m
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 45¢ $2 18h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $2 18h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $7 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 102d
T20 World Cup: England vs India SELL England 22¢ $6 102d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY England 5¢ $1 102d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY England 22¢ $2 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $42 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $176 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $62 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $100 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.97 · official $6.97 (match) · 303 history records