Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfba3…4e15
weather · 804 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$556 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$668 · open +$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$322
Realized−$668
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses400 / 353
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions50
Markets (closed)753 / 804
History coverage53d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 50 History 753 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$36
14 days−$190
30 days−$917
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? No 58¢ 98¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? No 57¢ 62¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? No 59¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$4 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? No 56¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? No 57¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? No 59¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? No 59¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? No 55¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 55¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 56¢ 89¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? No 59¢ 90¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? No 58¢ 62¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? No 55¢ 83¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 55¢ 81¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? No 55¢ 74¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 53¢ 64¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 59¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 55¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 54¢ 59¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 55¢ 65¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? No 58¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 57¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? No 59¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 59¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? No 59¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$6 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$5 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% −$63
sports 9% +$7
other 3% −$199
crypto 3% −$341
world 2% −$44
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $6 27m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 57m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 59¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 55¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 53¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 54¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -1.9% -11.3% 57% 57% -12.6%
≤30d 448 -7.3% -16.1% 51% 46% -27.3%
≤90d 753 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 49% -14.5%
all 753 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 49% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 49% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 45% -22.7%
15% -26.4% 44% -30.1%
20% -33.6% 38% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.41 · official $321.86 (match) · 2452 history records