Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb98…c6c5 sports 166 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%84W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$96
14 days+$100
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$154
other 32% +$162
crypto 6% −$40
politics 0% +$5
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -1.5% -10.9% 41% 32% +0.3%
≤30d 163 -8.9% -17.5% 52% 37% -10.1%
≤90d 163 -8.9% -17.5% 52% 37% -10.1%
all 163 -8.9% -17.5% 52% 37% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 37% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 22% -18.7%
15% -32.6% 14% -26.5%
20% -39.2% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses84 / 79
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)163 / 166
History coverage25d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 −$19 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $79 −$79 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $199 −$19 -10%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $101 +$49 +49%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $33 +$71 +216%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $17 −$9 -51%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +27%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $8 −$4 -45%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $15 +$2 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 −$1 -6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 27m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $22 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $125 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Iraq 91¢ $109 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 14h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 83¢ $101 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $79 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $100 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $179 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $199 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $1 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 33h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $150 34h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $101 42h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $55 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $104 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $33 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 69¢ $24 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.23 · official $101.25 (match) · 608 history records