Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfb97…f186 crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%86W / 12L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$10
politics 39% −$6
sports 9% −$3
economics 5% −$1
other 4% −$1
world 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 30 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 3% -9.3%
all 98 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses86 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 102
History coverage247d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? Jun 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 8? Jun 13 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $121 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +59%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? Jun 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 15? May 17 $103 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? May 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 27? Apr 30 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 17? Apr 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 12? Apr 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? Apr 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 29? Mar 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 13? Mar 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 7? Mar 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 13? Feb 14 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $110 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 05 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $113 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $112 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 8d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 100¢ $3 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $123 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $121 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $121 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $101 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $98 35d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $103 38d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 63¢ $4 45d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $4 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $98 52d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $103 55d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $104 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $104 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $101 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $103 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $106 71d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 98¢ $6 74d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $7 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $118 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $114 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.24 · official $124.24 (match) · 204 history records