Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb95…0d2f
other · 153 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$59 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$76 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$132
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses61 / 69
Open positions23
Markets (closed)130 / 153
History coverage247d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 23 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 66¢ 84¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+27%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes 72¢ 77¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 93¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 35¢ 67¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+89%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 19¢ 97¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+410%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Yes 61¢ 22¢ $22 $8 −$15 (-65%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? Yes 43¢ 33¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 17¢ $8 $2 −$7 (-80%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 36¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 37¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-38%)
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 45¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-77%)
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Yes 20¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 09 $8 +$1 +13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $9 +$2 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 09 $4 +$8 +235%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May? May 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of April? May 01 $15 +$5 +30%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap May 01 $22 +$81 +374%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of April? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June? Apr 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Will NVIDIA reach $212 in April? Apr 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will NVIDIA reach $192 in April? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in April? Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 08 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 16? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1? Apr 02 $6 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of March? Apr 02 $11 +$8 +70%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of March? Apr 02 $8 +$2 +32%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Mar 24 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 23 $3 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Mar 22 $20 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 20 $1 +$2 +228%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Team Human or Team AI win the Aster trading competition? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026? Mar 20 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 20 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of January? Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB all time high by December 31? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March? Mar 20 $3 $0 -15%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 14 $5 −$2 -52%
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? Mar 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Amazon dip to $200 in March? Mar 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 Mar 06 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 06 $19 +$2 +11%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Mar 06 $11 +$8 +78%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 05 $3 −$2 -76%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 04 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da Mar 02 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on Mar 02 $27 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA dip to $192 in March? Mar 02 $5 +$1 +22%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of February? Feb 27 $36 +$14 +39%
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? Feb 25 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $3 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$38
crypto 22% +$33
economics 21% +$82
tech 13% −$9
finance 2% $0
politics 1% −$3
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 46m
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se BUY Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se BUY Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1h
Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $10 4h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 89¢ $22 9d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 89¢ $4 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 89¢ $9 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 81¢ $11 34d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 34d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 34d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 39d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 59¢ $6 40d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 40d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 62¢ $6 40d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 67¢ $7 40d
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 29¢ $2 41d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 69¢ $7 41d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 69¢ $7 41d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 69¢ $14 41d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 41d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 77¢ $8 42d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 69¢ $7 42d
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $19 47d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of April? BUY No 16¢ $0 52d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of April? BUY No 16¢ $0 52d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of April? BUY No 16¢ $1 52d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 1 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤90d 35 -18.9% -26.6% 43% 31% -4.5%
all 130 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 31% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 31% -4.6%
10% -24.3% 19% -13.8%
15% -31.6% 15% -22.1%
20% -38.3% 13% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.80 · official $131.80 (match) · 527 history records