Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb8b…1fb2 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$244 (+24%) realized +$246 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +122% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +93% what you keep after slip
Net edge+93%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$217
14 days+$230
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$150
sports 45% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+100.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +190.5% +162.8% 58% 58% +26.1%
≤30d 18 +121.9% +100.8% 56% 56% +19.2%
≤90d 18 +121.9% +100.8% 56% 56% +19.2%
all 18 +121.9% +100.8% 56% 56% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +100.8% 56% +19.2%
10% +81.6% 50% +7.7%
15% +64.0% 44% -2.7%
20% +48.0% 39% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +122% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +240% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$29 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage10d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 28¢ 28¢ $93 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $131 +$42 +32%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 +$24 +2330%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $87 +$126 +145%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $59 +$109 +185%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $57 −$56 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $19 +$37 +197%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$17 +55%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $29 +$49 +172%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$24 +150%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$23 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $95 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 5¢ $1 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $131 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea Republi BUY 19¢ $46 25h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerla BUY 10¢ $46 25h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 12¢ $214 44h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $80 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $87 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $19 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $41 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $29 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 47¢ $5 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 8d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $3 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $60 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.51 · official $191.53 (match) · 41 history records