Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FB 0xfb8b…a62c other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$47 (+33%) realized +$47 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+39.3%	+26.0%	100%	75%	+26.5%
≤30d	4	+39.3%	+26.0%	100%	75%	+26.5%
≤90d	4	+39.3%	+26.0%	100%	75%	+26.5%
all	4	+39.3%	+26.0%	100%	75%	+26.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.0%	75%	+26.5%
10%	+14.0%	75%	+14.4%
15%	+3.0%	75%	+3.4%
20%	-7.1%	25%	-6.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$47

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$26	$26	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$29	+$3	+8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$35	+$19	+56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	+$9	+44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$31	+$15	+49%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	69¢	$26	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$29	25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$25	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$46	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$21	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.68 · official $25.68 (match) · 11 history records