Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb8b…7ff7 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%24W / 2L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$2
other 33% +$1
crypto 14% +$2
world 9% +$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 26 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses24 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage593d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026 Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Grok be the next CEO of X? Feb 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$560 in 2025? Feb 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 26 $28 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Feb 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 26 $40 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Feb 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Dec 22 $60 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Dec 22 $128 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Sep 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Sep 19 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Sep 19 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Sep 19 $65 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 27 $5 $0 +2%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 27 $15 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Jan 27 $151 +$1 +0%
Swell airdrop in 2024? Nov 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $373 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026 BUY No 100¢ $19 115d
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, BUY No 99¢ $10 115d
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, BUY Yes 100¢ $20 115d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 100¢ $10 115d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $10 115d
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $20 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $28 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $40 181d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $40 181d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $40 181d
Will Grok be the next CEO of X? BUY No 100¢ $20 181d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$560 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 181d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 100¢ $128 275d
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 275d
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $21 510d
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $11 510d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $65 510d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $65 510d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? BUY Yes 100¢ $151 570d
Tether Insolvent in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $5 593d
Base airdrop in 2024? BUY No 95¢ $5 593d
Swell airdrop in 2024? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 593d
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? BUY No 97¢ $15 593d
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $10 593d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.59 · official $188.59 (match) · 62 history records