Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb88…171b
sports · 464 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$197
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses399 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions27
Markets (closed)436 / 464
History coverage24d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 27 History 436 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$23
14 days−$20
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? No 94¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? No 94¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Brazil 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? No 94¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 95¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 92¢ 80¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 78¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 13? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -36%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $210? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 12 $5 −$3 -76%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 12 $40 −$29 -72%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 12 $8 −$2 -30%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 26% +$13
other 22% −$11
politics 17% −$38
world 10% +$11
weather 9% −$7
crypto 9% +$15
tech 3% −$2
finance 3% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 45m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $2 45m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $2 54m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 3h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 96¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 6h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 95¢ $0 7h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 60¢ $3 8h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl BUY Yes 96¢ $4 8h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl BUY Yes 96¢ $0 8h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $10 9h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 9h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 9h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 95¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +0.4% -9.1% 92% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 436 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 436 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.9%
all 436 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.21 · official $197.21 (match) · 1450 history records