Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb88…b826 sports 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%25W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$9
sports 26% −$3
politics 22% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
economics 5% −$1
culture 5% $0
world 5% −$1
finance 2% −$5
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 54 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 179 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses25 / 154
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage168d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $104 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $44 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $439 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 04 $107 +$1 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 01 $480 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $90 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $118 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $52 −$4 -7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 26 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $100 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 13d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 14d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $44 27d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $44 27d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 34d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 34d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $34 70d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $34 70d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $37 70d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $37 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $45 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $30 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $15 70d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $34 70d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $34 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 95¢ $37 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 96¢ $38 71d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $38 71d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $38 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 97¢ $42 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 96¢ $42 71d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $42 71d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $27 72d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $15 72d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $37 72d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $37 72d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $43 72d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $43 72d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $40 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.56 · official $38.56 (match) · 613 history records