Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FB 0xfb88…bf74 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+4%) realized +$141 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate60%29W / 19L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 57% +$72
other 33% +$92
crypto 5% −$95
world 4% −$3
sports 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤30d 3 +16.5% +5.4% 100% 33% -2.1%
≤90d 26 -12.9% -21.2% 62% 23% -7.1%
all 48 -15.2% -23.2% 60% 31% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 31% -7.5%
10% -30.6% 21% -16.4%
15% -37.3% 12% -24.5%
20% -43.4% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 54
History coverage245d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $39 $47 +$8 (+20%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $302 +$19 +6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $72 +$7 +9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 +$7 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 22 $10 −$9 -89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 22 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 16 $46 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $30 +$12 +39%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $21 −$20 -94%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $41 +$30 +73%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $32 −$28 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $272 −$23 -8%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $205 +$75 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $100 −$40 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 27 $30 +$22 +73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 25 $50 −$3 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 25 $135 −$52 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Apr 23 $40 −$38 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 23 $20 −$19 -93%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$7 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $100 +$49 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 16 $561 +$25 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 14 $452 +$29 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 12 $104 +$9 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 08 $200 +$16 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 08 $109 +$5 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Feb 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Feb 16 $7 +$2 +32%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 in November? Nov 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Nov 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Nov 01 $1 $0 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Oct 29 $2 $0 -2%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 27 $1 $0 +4%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 27 $1 $0 +30%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 27 $1 $0 +24%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Oct 27 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Oct 27 $1 $0 -31%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 27 $1 $0 -33%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 26 $2 −$1 -47%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Stan Wawrinka Oct 26 $1 $0 +39%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Oct 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Oct 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $308 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $321 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $78 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 13d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $300 13d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL Yes $1 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes $3 32d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $42 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 50d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 53d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 53d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 53d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 53d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 53d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 53d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 54d
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes $1 54d
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 91¢ $72 54d
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 50¢ $41 54d
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 54d
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes $4 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 54d
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 93¢ $280 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 49¢ $31 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes $2 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL Yes 39¢ $25 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.74 · official $397.74 (match) · 170 history records