Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FB 0xfb87…2fcf other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$15 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$149
tech 35% +$42
weather 11% +$33
politics 5% +$5
crypto 4% +$29
world 3% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +62.5% +47.0% 80% 40% +3.1%
≤30d 10 +31.9% +19.3% 80% 50% +5.0%
≤90d 35 -45.3% -50.5% 34% 26% -11.9%
all 70 -19.3% -27.0% 44% 33% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 33% -8.6%
10% -34.0% 27% -17.4%
15% -40.4% 24% -25.4%
20% -46.2% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)70 / 76
History coverage170d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 30¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+225%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 Jun 21 $24 +$2 +7%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by Dece Jun 21 $15 +$3 +17%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by Dece Jun 21 $2 −$1 -49%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 Jun 21 $2 +$6 +330%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $55 +$4 +8%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $47 +$9 +20%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $13 +$7 +52%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 18 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April? Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -99%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480? Apr 17 $44 +$5 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 16? Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 16? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 16? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 16? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 16? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 16? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 16? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 16? Mar 24 $7 +$4 +52%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 12 $267 −$117 -44%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $159 +$7 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 28 $16 +$17 +104%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $14 +$30 +216%
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? Feb 23 $71 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February Feb 15 $22 +$7 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on February Feb 13 $14 +$6 +42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on Feb Feb 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February Feb 13 $14 +$5 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 12? Feb 13 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 10 Feb 10 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on Febru Feb 10 $10 +$40 +376%
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 SELL No 86¢ $25 1h
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by Dece SELL No 87¢ $17 1h
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by Dece SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 SELL No 78¢ $8 1h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $60 1h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $38 5d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 5d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $47 9d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 97¢ $46 10d
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb BUY No 65¢ $13 23d
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb BUY No 75¢ $15 23d
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $11 34d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 34d
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $3 34d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 34d
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? BUY No 10¢ $2 34d
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? BUY No 7¢ $0 34d
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? BUY No 7¢ $0 34d
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? BUY No 7¢ $0 35d
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? BUY No 7¢ $0 35d
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $24 52d
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY No 10¢ $1 63d
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY No 10¢ $1 63d
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY No 10¢ $1 63d
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY No 10¢ $1 63d
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY No 10¢ $1 63d
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by Dece BUY Yes 17¢ $2 63d
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by Dece BUY No 74¢ $15 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.19 · official $12.19 (match) · 217 history records