Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb83…77ee world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,282 (-1%) realized +$14,851 · open −$16,133
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%24W / 14L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$5,013per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,137
7 days+$1,035
14 days+$1,591
30 days+$11,712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$3,171
finance 3% +$530
politics 2% +$59
tech 1% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.7% -33.7% 33% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 38% -0.7%
≤90d 38 -1.0% -10.5% 63% 37% -1.8%
all 38 -1.0% -10.5% 63% 37% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 37% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 11% -11.2%
15% -26.8% 3% -19.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$3,279) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$648 vs −$135 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.23 per $1 lost it wins $8.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$20,288
Realized+$14,851
Unrealized−$16,133
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses24 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage82d
Avg bet$5,013
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 76¢ 58¢ $16,937 $13,108 −$3,828 (-23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 21¢ $18,860 $6,840 −$12,020 (-64%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 72¢ 38¢ $608 $322 −$287 (-47%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 43¢ 48¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $35,489 +$1,137 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $132 −$100 -76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $70 −$2 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 03 $3,403 +$63 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $16,065 +$421 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $652 +$207 +32%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $9,199 −$134 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $28,128 +$4,878 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $13,609 +$2,214 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $8,138 +$2,677 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $3,279 +$663 +20%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $2,276 −$310 -14%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $265 +$35 +13%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $442 +$58 +13%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $224 +$37 +16%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $468 +$44 +10%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $305 −$85 -28%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $1,141 +$101 +9%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $232 −$157 -68%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $474 −$89 -19%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $189 −$114 -60%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1,012 −$284 -28%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $40 +$18 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 14 $13,487 +$1,110 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $1,864 −$129 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 10 $2,313 +$467 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $1,045 −$137 -13%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,087 +$42 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 05 $1,527 −$211 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 04 $4,751 +$232 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $15 +$2 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $2,955 +$297 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $3,047 +$548 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1,642 +$240 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $540 +$3 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $235 −$135 -57%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $152 +$48 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $2,610 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $7 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $491 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $89 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $6 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $652 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $9 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $123 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $24 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $9 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $32 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,287.76 · official $20,287.76 (match) · 1112 history records