Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb82…a312 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 32L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$11
world 32% −$6
sports 15% −$2
politics 10% −$7
economics 8% +$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -0.4% -9.9% 28% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 39 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 3% -9.9%
all 42 -0.5% -9.9% 24% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage97d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $169 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $93 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $161 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $160 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $83 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $92 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $127 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $160 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $183 −$6 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $77 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $82 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $82 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $246 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $179 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $56 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $11 +$2 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $180 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $9 −$2 -18%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $56 −$4 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $85 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $126 −$6 -5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $586 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $587 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $88 −$7 -8%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $594 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $373 −$2 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $619 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $58 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $58 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $58 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $60 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $83 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $83 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $75 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $75 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $69 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $78 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $86 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $86 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $86 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $79 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $58 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $70 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records