Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb7f…fb67 world 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+28%) realized +$185 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate67%71W / 35L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$13
14 days+$129
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$24
politics 34% +$44
crypto 8% +$54
other 7% −$9
culture 4% −$1
tech 0% +$2
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +9.9% -0.5% 67% 33% +7.7%
≤30d 106 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 29% +5.6%
≤90d 106 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 29% +5.6%
all 106 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 29% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 29% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 23% -4.5%
15% -26.7% 19% -13.7%
20% -33.9% 17% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses71 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions73
Markets (closed)106 / 179
History coverage25d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $34 $85 +$51 (+148%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $44 $55 +$11 (+24%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+16%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-32%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 32¢ 39¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+55%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 93¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 39¢ 23¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +180%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 +$21 +428%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $4 −$3 -77%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $13 +$14 +105%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $12 +$25 +205%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governo Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dusty Johnson and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Govern Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $58 +$51 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 5m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 22m
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 43m
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 55m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.77 · official $317.69 (match) · 905 history records